After the Spaniard won the Toronto Masters trophy last Sunday, Nadal is as close as he's ever been to the Swiss — just 300 points back and with precious few of those points to defend during the next few months.
In fact, at this point, it would be surprising if Nadal didn't end Federer's seemingly endless 234-week stint at No. 1. He may not do it this week at the Cincinnati Masters, as Federer would have to lose early and Nadal would have to at least reach the final, but once Federer begins to dump major points on August 18 (due to the havoc the Olympics have played with the schedule, points are dropping off later this year), his ranking will be under siege daily.
Unless the Spaniard gets hurt or his level drops to a pre-2008 level, there should be a new No. 1 entering the U.S. Open, where Federer is the four-time defending champion.
Outside of his often-spectacular play at Wimbledon, he's been a tad mediocre. Just how many losses will it take before he admits to himself that he's in a legitimate slump?
It's one thing to lose to world No. 3 Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semis, or to Nadal at the French Open and Wimbledon, but how to explain losses to Mardy Fish, Radek Stepanek and just last week, Frenchman Gilles Simon?
Simple: He doesn't trust his shots like he used to and is therefore undergoing major bouts of sloppy play.
Federer has no choice but to stay upbeat. He's a realist and he knows that his reign couldn't have lasted uninterrupted forever. Even when Djokovic took over the first quarter of the year, winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells, Federer kept pointing to Nadal as the world's second best, well aware that when healthy and playing the right way, the Spaniard with his speed, remarkable defense and "two forehands" could face down anyone on a great day.