Saturday, January 24, 2009

LOOKING AT THE SECOND WEEK

In the men's draw, play through the first the three rounds has validated the notion that the top four seeds could still be there for the semifinals. The "big four" of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray have been able to separate themselves from the rest of the players on the tour in recent months.

But the defending champion Djokovic has shown the same occasional lapses in concentration that contributed to his early exits in Brisbane and Sydney heading into the Aussie Open. Djokovic's tough four-set win over former NCAA champion Amer Delic should give Andy Roddick additional confidence that Roddick can knock out Djokovic should they meet in the quarterfinals. Delic controlled many of the significant baseline rallies with Djokovic, and Roddick's shot-making has been impressive so far in Australia.

Djokovic, though, will first have to take care of Marcos Baghdatis in the fourth round. The Cypriot was slowed by injuries for most of last year but has shown flashes of the brilliance that he displayed when he reached the final of the Australian Open in 2006. He remains a crowd favorite at Rod Laver Arena.

Roddick's new coach Larry Stefanki has been emphasizing Andy's return game, which could pay big dividends if he takes on Djokovic. Roddick has benefited from a manageable draw, dismantling a pair of qualifiers in his first two matches. It's never an easy assignment to take on Fabrice Santoro, but Roddick dicatated the terms in his third round victory over the 36-year-old magician.

Next up for the American is a fourth-round date with Tommy Robredo, who has never beaten Roddick in nine chances. Perhaps Roddick is poised to expand the elite circle of men's tennis to a "big five" this year if he can fight his way into the final four Down Under.

Heading into 2009, Roger Federer announced he was ready to reclaim his control over men's tennis. So far the former world No. 1 has been living up to those bold words. He rolled past Marat Safin in straight sets in the third round in what could have been Safin's final match in Melbourne.

While Federer's next opponent — Tomas Berdych — stunned the smooth Swiss in the 2004 Olympics, he hasn't beaten Federer since. That trend should continue when they meet in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, Federer would then play either Marin Cilic or Juan Martin del Potro. These rising stars both have big games but shouldn't be able to take down Federer on a very big stage.

Nadal and Murray have been just as impressive. The top seeded Spaniard destroyed Tommy Haas in straight sets and hasn't lost a set in his first three matches. While Fernando Gonzalez's power could give Nadal some trouble in the fourth round, the Chilean may be physically drained after rallying from two sets down to beat Richard Gasquet in an epic third-round match.

If Gael Monfils can upset Gilles Simon, Nadal will have a chance to avenge his loss earlier this year to Monfils in Qatar. Murray remains on a collision course to meet Nadal in the semifinals. If he's feeling any pressure to capture his first Grand Slam title, Murray hasn't shown it so far and was dominant in blowing Jurgen Melzer off the court in the third round.

Brian Webber, FOXSports.com

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